Saturday, June 03, 2006

Baseball Post: Pythagorean Win Projections for the AL Central

One of the bigger surprises this season is that it's June 2nd and the Detroit Tigers are in first place. One of the sad realities is that the Kansas City Royals are once again terrible and threatening to compile another 100+ loss season. Let's take a look at what the Pythagorean Win Projections convey about how these five teams have been playing so far.

AL Central Current Standings

Projection based on current win %
Tigers 36-19 .655

White Sox 33-21 .611

Indians 27-27 .500

Twins 25-29 .463

Royals 13-39 .250


AL Central Pythagorean Win Projection
100-62 .620
White Sox
96-66 .595
89-73 .548
73-89 .449
45-117 .280

I find these projections surprising for a number of reasons. According to these projections the standings should remain unchanged between now and the end of the season. It also indicates that with the exception of the Royals, each team is winning just slightly better than what this formula would indicate. But it also tells me that the Detroit Tigers are actually playing well enough to be a contending team. I really didn't expect that. I'd assumed they'd been lucky to this point. That 100-62 projected record has the familiar ring of those 1969 Miracle Mets. I wouldn't have bet on the Tigers at the start of the season after their recent losing seasons. Not unlike that 1969 New York team. I actually think that the White Sox have a better lineup and pitching rotation. But those Tigers are just playing better as a team. I'll have to check up on this division deeper into this season to see if these clubs are still performing at this level.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

This former Tiger fan doesn't know what to make of it yet...

Robert Gable