This year I've taken a particular interest in various Sabermetric angles on interpreting the vast numerical data of baseball and thought it would be interesting to look at some projections for the NL West using the relatively simple Pythagorean Win Percentage formula. Like many predictions, such projections are subject to the altering effects of reality. And these in particular assume that all 5 teams will continue to score and allow runs to score at roughly the same rate going forward. They are also based on an admittedly small sample size given this early point in the season.
|Padres||22-16||.579||projected at current win rate: 94-68|
|Rockies||21-17||.553||projected at current win rate: 90-72|
|Diamondbacks||20-17||.541||projected at current win rate: 88-74|
|Dodgers||19-19||.500||projected at current win rate: 81-81|
|Giants||18-20||.474||projected at current win rate: 77-85|
Pythagorean Win Percentage Projection
Well, this small set of data suggests a tight race. Though it also suggests that the Rockies are currently winning much more than what they should expect if they continue to score and allow runs at their current rate. It is interesting to note that these projections place 3 of 5 teams with better records than the 82-80 2005 Padres.