Friday, May 26, 2006

Baseball Post: Pythagorean Win Projections for the NL Central

The NL Central is a crowded (6 teams) and fascinating division in major league baseball this year. The Cincinnati Reds are turning out to be an unexpected success story and Prince Albert of the St. Louis Cardinals is easily the player to watch in either league. This is the Cardinals division for the taking and I think they've got a shot at the championship this year. Let's see if the Pythagorean Win Projections agree.

Here are the current standings for the division with total win projection based on current win percentage:

NL Central Current Standings
Projection based on current win %
Cardinals 31-16 .660
Reds 27-20 .574
Astros 25-23 .521
Brewers 24-23 .511
Cubs 18-28 .391
Pirates 14-33 .298

And based on the current season totals for runs scored and runs allowed here are the Pythagorean Win Projections:
NL Central Pythagorean Win Projections
Cardinals 102-60 .629
Reds 85-77 .526
Brewers 77-85 .474
Astros 76-86 .470
Pirates 66-96 .408
Cubs 56-106 .345

I actually hope that the Brewers do something to allow fewer runs because I'm pulling for them to do better than .500 for the first time since 1992. This is very much the Cardinals division to take and the Reds may have a shot at the wild card if they can stay consistent. I look forward to seeing the Astros collapse if these projections turn out to be correct. And things do look grim for the Cubs.

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