Friday, May 19, 2006

Baseball Post: Pythagorean Win Projections of the AL East

My previous exercise in using the Pythagorean Win Percentage formula to project the NL West standings yielded some interesting results that helped clarify why that division is fairly unpredictable. The most contrasting division is the AL East where one can safely bank of the Yankees coming out on top year after year after year. So I ran the same formula on the AL East using the same formula using current run data so far.

AL East Current Standings
Projection based on current win %
Red Sox 23-15 .605
Yankees 23-16 .590
Blue Jays 22-17 .564
Orioles 19-22 .463
Devil Rays 17-24 .415

AL East Pythagorean Win Projection
Yankees 99-63 .613
Blue Jays 91-71 .563
Red Sox 91-71 .560
Orioles 70-92 .435
Devil Rays 60-102 .369

This formula is based purely on runs scored versus runs allowed. And the Yankees have scored a lot with 225 so far. There have been few surprises in this division in the Joe Torre Era and it looks like that will continue. Which is news to no one. Next I'll take a look at the crowded NL Central.

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